Friday, December 01, 2006

Liberal Deathmatch Day 3: Get ready for delegate speculation

Using Cerberus' Numbers and the elected delegate list on the LPC website, we get the following:

candidate attending
iggy 1060.29
rae 688.39
kennedy 623.2
dion 549.69
Dryden 161.84
Brison 155.94
Volpe 85.07
Hall Findlay
15.18

Note that none of this includes ex-officio support.

(After I do this, I discover that Stephen Taylor has done the same. Meh)

Now, the caveats on accuracy. Rumours are rumours, so take them with a grain of salt. However, Martha Hall Findlay's camp has helpfully put out a list of delegates at the convention, and a quick count indicates that there are 14. So, I think that it is reasonable to treat them within the realm of the possible.

Some thoughts on this: Really, the order is the same as on the DSM weekend, though Kennedy has moved closer to Rae. Kennedy seems to be really well organized on the floor, so that strength will probably play out pretty well. Talking to a lot of people, there seems to be a strong feeling of Dion momentum, though I never really know what that actually means. It'll be important to see if it can keep up after the first ballot results are announced later this evening. Expect it to be very later, as voting seems to be taking forever.

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